Well, friends, I gave it my best, but I couldn't manage to watch them all. The final score is Sarah 50, Death Race 8 (86-ish percent) and 20 out of 24 categories completed (83 percent). I'd hoped to cram in another movie or two today, but I had to act in a music video (…I know), so that didn't work out.

In case anyone cares, I've listed my recommendations for your Oscar-pool picks after the jump.

Best Picture
Should win: Hurt Locker.
Will win: Avatar.

Best Actor
Should win: I'm told Firth was amazing, but I didn't get around to seeing A Single Man. Of the nominees I saw, Bridges and Renner did equally good work.
Will win: Bridges.

Best Actress
Should win: Tough call. Sidibe is excellent, but I have to vote Streep. Or, really, anyone but Bullock.
Will win: Bullock, much as it pains me.

Best Supporting Actor
Should win: Everyone in the category did great work; I'd like to see Harrelson rewarded for raising his game.
Will win: Christoph Waltz, which is fine with me.

Best Supporting Actress
Should win: Wildly different performances make "should" a tough call. Kendrick or Mo'Nique.
Will win: Mo'Nique.

Best Director
Should win: I said elsewhere that all these directors did achieve a great deal in different areas of directing (except Reitman, who was kind of average). Any other year, Tarantino might have gotten it for showing some mature depth at last. This year, it's between Bigelow and Cameron.
Will win: Bigelow.

Best Original Screenplay
Should win: Inglourious Basterds.
Will win: Inglourious Basterds.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should win: In the Loop.
Will win: Woof, what a dog's breakfast this category is. If District 9 is winning anything, it's this, but I have no idea how this will go. In the Loop or Up in the Air.

Best Cinematography
Should win: The White Ribbon.
Will win: Avatar.

Best Editing
Should win: Hell, I don't know. The hallmark of good editing is often, but not always, that you don't notice it…but that doesn't help me narrow it down. Hurt Locker it is, I guess.
Will win: Hurt Locker or Inglourious Basterds.

Best Art Direction
Should win: In terms of absolutely, fully realizing the visual tone, Nine.
Will win: It's hard to say with some of these techier categories how willing the voters will be to just give Avatar everything. I tend to err on the side of assuming they'll think it through, which I shouldn't do. Avatar.

Best Costume Design
Should win: All extremely good. I liked Bright Star's version the best.
Will win: I really have no idea, because I have no background in fashion history and I have no idea whether that's something the voters use to judge this category. Nine or Coco avant Chanel.

Best Makeup
Should win: I don't know how this should be judged either. Let's use "had the furthest to go, and got there" as the metric, and call it for Star Trek.
Will win: Like I said, not sure of the metric here, but what the hell. Star Trek.

Best Original Score
Should win: Oh my god, Up by a landslide.
Will win: Up.

Best Original Song
Should win: I didn't care for any of these nominees and think the wrong songs from both Crazy Heart and Nine got nominated. "The Weary Kind" is slightly less boring than the others.
Will win: I feel like The Princess and the Frog wins here, I don't know why. "Down in New Orleans" is by-number gumboid dreck, but it probably wins. "The Weary Kind" is a safe choice too, though.

Best Sound Mixing
Should win: Hurt Locker.
Will win: Hurt Locker.

Best Sound Editing
Should win: Inglourious Basterds. The creaking in that opening sequence is unbearable.
Will win: Avatar.

Best Visual Effects
Should win: Avatar.
Will win: Avatar.

Best Animated Feature
Should win: Up.
Will win: Up, probably, but a vote for Fantastic Mr. Fox is not misplaced.

Best Foreign Language Film
Should win: I only saw three of them; all three are outstanding, in different ways. The most notable achievement is The White Ribbon's.
Will win: The White Ribbon.

Best Documentary Feature
Should win: I didn't see Which Way Home, but of the other four, I thought Daniel Ellsberg was the most effective and well paced.
Will win: I have no idea. Probably not The Cove, but any other vote would make sense to me. Based on the subject matter, Which Way Home.

Best Documentary Short
Should win: No idea. I only saw one; it was affecting, but doesn't necessarily seem like Oscar-winning material.
Will win: Krolik po berlinsku. I…think.

Best Animated Short
Should win: Logorama.
Will win: Wallace and Gromit.

Best Live-Action Short
Should win: Istallet for abrakadabra is my favorite; it has problems, but it also has spirit and great comic timing.
Will win: The Door, alas, but The New Tenants could surprise us.

Mirren is good, as is Plummer, but it's average work from each of them, and neither of them is going to win.

Sarah 50, Death Race 8; 20 of 24 categories completed

In spite of that, I was riveted, for many of the same reasons I loved Epitafios. It's got the leading man who's pretty average-looking, even lumpen, but is so charismatic that you want to make out with him after about an hour; it's got the Taking! It! Personally! feel, but played effectively and relatably; it's got the steady, but not spoon-fed, build of information that culminates in "what the…wow, holy shit" at the end; it stays with you for days afterwards. Is this a thing in Argentine culture, dark procedurals featuring obsessed paunchy guys who call everyone "motherfucker," have tortured relationships with educated women with great hair, and put their indispensable sidekicks in grave peril? Because Argentina really does that well, and it happens to be Bunting-nip.

If you have seen it: Sandoval. Man. I felt like I knew him personally; pitch-perfect writing and rendition. If you haven't seen it, please go; I'm sure you'll get workable subtitles, but if you don't, seriously, you won't even need them.

Sarah 49, Death Race 9; 18 of 24 categories completed

Penelope Cruz is quite genuine and appealing, and it's in contrast to Nicole Kidman, who presents as very artificial. The movie isn't going for realism, obviously, but everyone else is committed to the concept. Kidman seems primarily concerned with posing, reminding the camera that she's A Great Beauty, and she's a better actress than that, plus the implied smugness is off-putting. Perhaps this is the point, but it didn't integrate very well for me.

Pretty to look at, but ultimately unsatisfying.

Sarah 49, Death Race 9; 18 of 24 categories completed

The narration invites the viewer immediately to draw parallels between the events shown and the rise of National Socialism in Germany, and it's interesting to see how events unfold once that's been put in your head, but what the movie really excels at is creating an uncomfortable, oppressive atmosphere. The director shot the movie in color but printed it in black-and-white, and some scenes turn out so dark that you can't see what's going on — and you find yourself both straining towards the screen and cringing away from it. Even sunlit scenes seem chilly somehow, cooled by an invisible shadow.

The casting is excellent, especially the fathers, all of whom treat their "loved" ones (read: those under their control) with steady and entitled cruelty. The pastor in particular, unaware (or, perhaps, content) that his manipulations and shaming have sown the seeds of antisocial disorders in his children, is played without fear by Burghart Klaussner, and as a physical type, he's a perfect fit: jowly, his lips pressed thin by decades of sanctimonious frowning. Ditto Maria-Victoria Dragus, whose rendition of an unblinking tween sociopath is pitilessly creepy.

In the end, it's hard to say what exactly has happened or who exactly is responsible. The community reacts in horror at certain crimes against children; others are considered merely the way of things. Some vengeance is expected, other vengeance is denounced. The women are not so much abused as worn away. Blame is laid on the right people for the wrong things. Justice is not achieved, because it is barely sought. As an exploration of the roots of Nazism and the society that gave its permission to it, The White Ribbon answers the question of why with "…because." As such, it's believable, and very depressing.

This is not a fun movie to watch, but it's done extremely well, and I will be very surprised if it doesn't win the category.

Sarah 47, Death Race 11; 14 of 24 categories completed

None of these resonates much today, not compared with two headlines below the fold: "Court Quashes Subpoenas on Watergate Reporting" (Nixon's team tried and failed to get reporters to turn over unpublished material), and "Ellsberg Backed On Access To Data" (the government did not own the copy of the Pentagon report that Ellsberg copied).

Even as a kid, I knew that the Ellsberg and Watergate headlines were the lasting news, but despite having that front page hanging in every bedroom I've lived in since 1983, I never learned the specifics of Ellsberg's case until watching the documentary, and it's quite amazing. The movie gilds the lily a bit with the tensely shot re-enactments and the Mission: Impossible-esque score, but it doesn't change the essential fact: that this one guy, after trying and failing to make the best of a bad job vis-à-vis the Vietnam "conflict," finally decided that no ethical option remained except to rat out five administrations for their cynical actions in Southeast Asia. And he assumed he would go to jail for it, but he felt he had no choice.

What's striking about Ellsberg's stand is not just its courage; it's that subsequent administrations have learned nothing from Nixon's paranoid bungling of the consequences. And most striking of all, as always, is that Nixon is, in the end, such a pathetic asshole. The American people had little way of knowing the extent of it then, of course, but he and Kissinger have a conversation in which Nixon expresses the desire to hurry the entire Vietnam process up by dropping a nuclear bomb on "that shit-ass little country" and having done with it, and Kissinger naysays it — because it would be a PR problem. I understand that the conversation was not meant for public consumption, but even in a private meeting — this is what you say? This is who you are? The equivalent of "Nuke 'em all and let God sort 'em out," followed by "You can't do that, sir, it looks bad"? Not that I don't still wonder how this country went back for a second helping of W., but…ain't nothing new under the sun. Sadly.

It's an interesting movie, easy to follow, doesn't try to do too much. I appreciated the footage of present-day Ellsberg continuing to lie down in front of police vans at war protests and let himself get arrested; it's not easy to live one's beliefs all the time, but it's nice to see that it's worthwhile on occasion.

Sarah 47, Death Race 11; 14 of 24 categories completed

It helps that it's cast with people who, in one sense, "don't belong" in a franchise like Transformers, but because Julie White and John Turturro needed the money (I assume), it makes the whole project more interesting. Turturro seems to have decided that the writing is terrible, but he signed a contract, so he might as well give it 100 percent, and he does.

Everyone does; the movie's execution is very good. That's the thing with steroid-popcorn fare like Transformers — you have to look at it for what it is, and not complain about what it isn't. It isn't subtle. It isn't going to give you the small, sharply observed moments. Megan Fox isn't Meryl Streep — so what? You want Meryl Streep, go to a movie with Meryl Streep in it. You want a bunch of shit to blow up while Megan Fox dashes around pouting and having taut abs, you go to Transformers. Michael Bay does, well, Michael Bay movies, and he does them really well; if you use a Woody Allen ruler to measure them, that's kind of on you.

I've gotten tired of commentary on Transformers and its ilk that doesn't review the movie, but rather can't wait to indict movies made for teenage boys for cheapening the culture (and also gas on about how much smarter than the material the reviewer is). I agree that, if big-budget toy-tie-in kablamotrons like Transformers take money away from smaller projects, it's a shame, but there isn't anything per se wrong with a movie that basically only exists to rig explosions — and not every quirky indie is per se better at what it does than Transformers or The A Team, or even very good at all.

Sarah 47, Death Race 11; 14 of 24 categories completed

I faced Ajami as one does a hated vegetable, and got a delicious stew instead. The story is meticulously put together, and unfolds in the manner of a Spirograph drawing; whether the Rashomon-esque structure crosses the line from formal into mannered is perhaps a matter of taste, but it worked for me, for two reasons: 1) a handful of events seen in retelling went in unexpected, but tidy, directions, and 2) the formality serves as a sort of elegy for the events themselves.

I'm purposefully vague to avoid spoiling not the plot, but the framework; it's worth a watch. American directors should take note that this is how you frame violence effectively, with as much quiet as loud banging and as much messy scuffling as operatic swoons backward. When it feels like a report instead of a story, you've done something right.

Sarah 44, Death Race 14; 12 of 24 categories completed

The movie has heavy atmosphere, though; you get a sense of the coexisting claustrophobia and rudderlessness that attend being kept in that way. The acting is very good too, especially Benoit Poelvoorde and Alessandro Nivola. Roles like theirs in a bio-pic like this can come out cardboard no matter what you do, but Balsan and Capel have depth here. Nivola's choices seem a little Regency-novel initially, but stick with him, he turns it around.

The end is a bit tired, all the reflections in the mirrors and the flashbacks, but it makes a nice moment for Tautou, who prior to that isn't called on to do much but pose and glare.

Sarah 43, Death Race 15; 12 of 24 categories completed

Emily Blunt is quite good, but the writing that wants to examine the conflict between Victoria the monarch and Victoria the wife lets her down a bit. Mark Strong is again a disappointment. Not bad, but should have been better.

Sarah 43, Death Race 15; 12 of 24 categories completed