Ah, day baseball
Submitted by Sarah D. Bunting on May 16, 2007 – 3:28 PM4 Comments
My mother tipped me off that the Yanks had a game today; it does make the Leaning Tower of Worksa slightly more bearable, in theory.
I notice that Torre dropped Abreu in the order, finally (this probably isn’t new, but I only noticed it today); I don’t have an issue batting A-Rod third per se, but mightn’t it make more sense, generally, to bat Jetes in the three slot? He’s very consistent and his OBP might do them more good batting a bit further down.
Not that I have any ideas on who would replace him in the two slot, but that’s what the comments are for.
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Actually, Jeter should probably be leading off with Damon hitting in the 2 hole and A-Rod batting 3rd. Jeter’s got a nice slugging %, but his high OPB, reliability on the basepaths, and ability to see a lot of pitches makes him the right guy to lead off.
It won’t happen, though. (Not that I care, since I am bound by paternal fiat to hate the Yankees…)
Aaaaand of course Abreu goes 2-4 with a HR in a losing effort.
To address your question, statheads (like me) will tell you that Jeter and his high OBP are best used at the top of the order. Keeping him in the one or two hole ensures that he gets the most plate appearances, and at least one of those PAs is guaranteed to come with less than 2 outs (when getting on base is key). To move Jeter down in the order would be to underutilize him, and would likely put a player who is both slower and more likely to make outs in front of him.
If you really want to dig into statistical analysis to support this, there’s been some work done on the subject, although it’s pretty new research. Advance copies of a book creatively titled “The Book” ( http://www.insidethebook.com/ ) have sparked online discussion of “lineup analysis”, and it’s still ongoing. Here’s a take on traditional vs. sabermetric lineups that might interest you, as Jeter is one of the players discussed: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/25/21329/9401
His note on his ideal lineup’s #3 spot is interesting; I grew up watching NL teams, specifically one where the pitcher’s spot, #9, was protected by the fearsome bat of one Rafael “You Can’t Even See .200 From Here” Santana, and clustering the weaker hitters at the bottom of the lineup was just how it was done, but I’ve wondered from time to time why that is — why you would basically take yourself out of most innings in which your 7-8-9 hitters come up in a row. Why not spread them out more so the rally-killage doesn’t last as long?
…Weird; I’m mentioning the ’80s Mets and Paulie mentions Orosco on the Yanks broadcast.
Just an FYI
There’s another day game today, Friday. We really need to win this one going into series with Mets followed by Sox.